Pandemic Modeling: Charting the Course of Covid 19

According to statistical modelers, all models are wrong but some are more useful than others.  A pandemic model can help colleges and universities plan through the pandemic, especially as they wrangle with decision making for the summer and fall.

One of the more useful models available is the Institute for Health Metrics (IHME) model, because it is consistent with our expectations of the spread of the virus globally, and on past experience with similar, past outbreaks. Equally, it includes error bars with its model, which indicate error or uncertainty, allowing us to assess how precise the measurement is.

Information provided by the model include:

  1. Individual Country and State predictions

  2. Interventions implemented

  3. Hospital resource use  including all beds, ICU beds, and invasive ventilators (available, needed, shortage)

  4. Deaths per day and total death (with reference to expected peaks)

IHME is an independent population health research center at University of Washington Medicine. The model provides COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020.

Header Image Credit: IStock metamorworks

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